- The Commission of Inquiry into State Capture has led to some shocking revelations about the depth of government corruption
- But for any of those implicated to actually face criminal prosecution, certain conditions will have to be met
- According to several political analysts, these include Ramaphosa strengthening his position and establishing an independent NPA
The explosive revelations at the Zondo Commission have grabbed headlines, implicated some major political players, and sent some ANC officials into panic mode regarding the Commission's impact on their electoral support.
But will the Commission result in anyone going to jail?
Commissions of inquiry are aimed at revealing information rather than determining guilt, but the explosive testimony given by Angelo Agrizzi suggests that criminal prosecutions may be a possibility.
However, Briefly.co.za learned that some political analysts like Richard Clalland and Mike Law suggest that jail time might be on the cards for some of those implicated so far, provided certain conditions are met.
The first is that the ANC wins by a wide margin in the upcoming elections, thus consolidating Ramaphosa' position.
Although Ramaphosa appears to have gathered strenghth since taking office, his place as head of the party has always been precarious.
His slate only narrowly beat Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma's at Nasrec and the Zuma-supporting faction is still active and powerful.
A weak showing at the polls would likely strengthen the Zuma loyalists at the cost of Ramaphosa's faction. However, if Ramaphosa sweeps up a decisive victory, he might have a stable enough position to properly pursue his reform agenda.
The second condition that would have to be met to ensure prosecutions is that Ramaphosa establishes an impartial and independent prosecuting authority, which would only be possible if Ramaphosa finds himself in a strong position.
Under the Zuma administration, the National Prosecuting Authority was staffed with several figures loyal to the former present.
The institution will need to be purged of its corrupt officials in order to adequately prosecute those implicated in state capture.
All of this means that the upcoming elections are important, and a lot hinges on their outcome.
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