- Lower voter turnout may affect how much support each party gets in the upcoming election
- In particular, it may hurt the ANC and help the DA and EFF
- Recent polls, however, still put the ANC at above the 50% needed to form a government
Polls predict that this year's election will have a lower voter turnout than usual.
Usually, smaller turnouts benefit the opposition parties rather than the ANC.
Here's how the polls indicate the voter turnout will effect the major political parties.
Based on an Ipsos poll conducted at the end of February, 61% of voters would cast their ballot for the ANC, 16% would vote DA and 9% would vote EFF. However, voter turnout this year is expected to be around 80% of eligible voters.
When adjusted for this turnout, the polls show ANC remaining at 61%, but the DA and EFF rising to 18% and 10%, respectively.
This keeps with the trend of the last few elections, where the DA, for example, performs better when turnout is lower (such as during local elections).
The EFF's boost in votes may be especially significant, because it could mean that the 'Red Berets' might become the official opposition in up to three provinces, according to BusinessTech.
However, these predictions are not definitive and have a significant margin of error. Additionally, other polls have produced slightly different results.
For example, a recent poll conducted by the Institute of Race Relations saw the ANC losing considerable support and dipping below 60%.
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