- Pandemic Data Analysis has released an in-depth look at the current coronavirus lockdown situation
- The team of data analysts and actuaries claims that the lockdown may cause more deaths than the virus
- Briefly.co.za explores this startling set of data put forward amid strict regulations
Pandemic Data Analysis, known as PANDA, has released its research into the current coronavirus lockdown in South Africa.
The team, consisting of data analysts and actuaries, claims that a prolonged lockdown may well result in more deaths than Covid-19 itself.
Making use of a metric known as Years of Lives Lost, Nick Hudson and Peter Castleden led the project which has now suggested that bringing the economy to a halt could be the death blow, not the virus.
In a letter sent to President Cyril Ramaphosa, the team put forward the following perspective.
“We present our data and analysis to you with an urgent appeal: to revise the current approach to lockdown. Using commercially tested actuarial principles, we have been able to estimate the impact of the lockdown’s economic contraction on South Africans’ mortality, or the ‘life-years lost’.”
Comparing the data models of the lockdown and the coronavirus, PANDA concluded that civil limitations might work at first, but allowing them to continue for extended periods of time.
PANDA claims the lockdown has the potential to be 30 times more lethal than the coronavirus.
“Our latest estimate is that South Africa’s lockdown will cause a loss of life at least 29 times greater than the loss of life it stands to prevent. It would be no exaggeration to say that each week of continuing lockdown will, in the long run, result in more loss of life than the disease itself.”
The noted decrease in life expectancy due to restricted income was also noted in the study.
“In the face of this, economically restrictive lockdown measures should be discontinued immediately. Reduced income has long been known to cause a material decrease in life expectancy. The temporary and permanent aspects of the lockdown contraction have an impact on the ability of millions to make a living.”
Briefly.co.za reported that President Cyril Ramaphosa had announced the current lockdown would be phased out in stages, with no indication as to a cut off date. South Africa is currently on its 40th day of lockdown.
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