El Niño Returns and South Africa’s Food Prices and Harvests Could Take a Serious Hit
- Major international climate agencies have confirmed that El Niño conditions have developed, raising concerns about drought, crop damage and rising food costs
- Investec Chief Economist Annabel Bishop warned that the weather pattern is expected to intensify between November 2026 and January 2027
- Maize is more vulnerable, with Bishop lifting her 2027 inflation forecast to 3.7% from 3.3% as food price risks grow
PAY ATTENTION: You can now search for all your favourite news and topics on Briefly News.
Source: Getty Images
SOUTH AFRICA - Several of the world's leading climate organisations have confirmed that El Niño is back, and South Africa could feel the effects in its food basket and wallet by next year.
Investec Chief Economist Annabel Bishop flagged the development, noting that agencies including the NOAA Climate Prediction Centre, the World Meteorological Organisation, and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society have all reported that El Niño conditions are present and strengthening.
For South Africa, the biggest concern is what this means for agriculture, food production and the prices that ordinary people pay at the shops.
What El Niño means for South Africa
El Niño is a climate pattern linked to warming ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, and its effects are well known in southern Africa.
PAY ATTENTION: stay informed and follow us on Google News!
The pattern tends to bring drier conditions to the region, increasing the risk of drought and damaging crop yields. South Africa's farming sector had been doing well under the La Niña conditions, which brought better rainfall and supported healthy harvests.
Agriculture contributed positively to the country's first quarter, but Bishop said that the picture could look very different as El Niño takes hold.
She explained that current soil moisture levels should keep farming conditions reasonable through the second and third quarters of 2026, but the situation is expected to deteriorate heading into the next planting season.
The most worrying window is between November 2026 and January 2027, when forecasts suggest El Niño could hit its most intense phase.
Maize and food prices at risk
Maize sits at the centre of South Africa's food security concerns. It's one of the country's most widely consumed staple foods. It's also one of the crops most sensitive to poor rainfall during the growing season.
If El Niño disrupts the upcoming rainy season as expected, the harvest could take a knock that pushes local maize prices up and adds pressure to food inflation more broadly.
Bishop said food prices are likely to stay relatively stable for most of 2026 thanks to the strong harvests already in the pipeline, but warned that 2027 could be a different story.
Bishop added that while weather forecasts carry uncertainty and El Niño is expected to ease during the second quarter of 2027, history shows that prolonged El Niño events have pushed South Africa's food inflation into high double digits.
Source: Getty Images
More on weird weather
Cold temperatures and isolated showers were forecast across parts of South Africa this week, with Gauteng experiencing its sharpest overnight temperature drop of the winter season.
A deadly heatwave tore through Europe, killing at least 20 people as temperatures climbed above 40 degrees Celsius.
A strong cold front was on its way to South Africa heading into the weekend, with the Western Cape expected to bear the brunt of the system.
PAY ATTENTION: Follow Briefly News on Twitter and never miss the hottest topics! Find us at @brieflyza!
Source: Briefly News
