El Niño Threat Looms Over Southern Africa, Millions Could Face Hunger

• The UN's World Food Programme released a report on 6 August warning that a powerful El Niño could develop during the 2026/27 season
• The WFP identified Southern Africa as one of the hardest-hit regions, with over 12 million additional people at risk of acute hunger
• South Africa's key crops, including maize, soybeans and sunflowers, could face serious threats from reduced rainfall and drought conditions

SOUTH AFRICA - South Africa could be heading into a difficult period for food security. The United Nations' World Food Programme issued a stark warning on 6 August that a major El Niño weather event may be on the way, one that could hit Southern Africa particularly hard.

The WFP's report puts the probability of a very strong El Niño developing during the 2026/27 season at 81%. If the forecast holds, it could surpass every El Niño event recorded since 1950, making it the most powerful in over seven decades.

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Globally, the agency estimates the phenomenon could push an additional 49 million people into acute hunger by the end of 2027 across 45 countries. Southern Africa is not among those countries in the projections, but the WFP flagged the region as one of the most vulnerable, warning that acute food insecurity there could climb by nearly 75% and affect more than 12 million additional people.

What El Niño could mean for SA farmers

El Niño is a climate pattern driven by warmer ocean temperatures in the Pacific. In Southern Africa, it typically brings hotter, drier conditions, reduced rainfall and a heightened risk of drought during the summer months.

That is a serious concern for South Africa, where staple crops like maize, soybeans and sunflowers are grown in summer rainfall regions. A drop in precipitation during planting and growing seasons could reduce harvests, strain water reserves and put significant pressure on livestock farmers.

Tighter agricultural output would likely filter through to consumers in the form of higher food prices, especially if dry conditions persist across multiple seasons. The WFP also noted that crop losses from extreme weather, combined with ongoing disruptions to global commodity markets, could amplify price pressures worldwide.

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Echoes of the 2015/16 drought

The warning has drawn comparisons to the 2015/16 El Niño, which remains one of the strongest on record. That season brought severe drought to Southern Africa, sharply reduced maize yields and resulted in billions of rand in agricultural losses. Multiple countries in the region declared national disasters, and millions of people needed food assistance to survive.

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The WFP was clear that the current forecast is an early warning, not a guarantee. But the agency urged governments, farmers and humanitarian organisations to act now while there is still time to strengthen drought preparedness and protect food systems ahead of the planting season.

3 Briefly News on El Niño

• Briefly News reported that Limpopo is bracing for an exceptionally hot and dry summer starting in October, as a strengthening El Niño grips southern Africa.
• Several of the world's leading climate organisations have confirmed that El Niño is back, and South Africa could feel the effects in its food basket and wallet by next year.
• South Africa may be heading into one of the most severe El Niño periods since records began, and households are already being warned to brace for rising food prices.

Source: Briefly News