Bad News for Wallets: Food Items Expected to Be Hit Hardest by El Niño

• South Africa could face one of the strongest El Niño events in decades, with a 97% chance of a super El Niño forming
• Cereals and meat are the food categories most likely to drive food price inflation during the weather event
• Food's share of the inflation basket has dropped significantly since 2006, meaning the overall impact may be smaller than feared

South Africa may be heading into one of the most severe El Niño periods since records began, and households are already being warned to brace for rising food prices. Investec chief economist Annabel Bishop says the latest data from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration points to a 97% probability that a super El Niño will form. Forecasts suggest the event will rank among the strongest on record since 1950, with conditions expected to intensify through the second half of 2026 and into early 2027.

Not every food category carries the same weight on your grocery bill or in official inflation figures. Bishop points out that meat accounts for more than 5% of South Africa's Consumer Price Index basket, while cereal products make up nearly 4.5%. These two categories are the ones to watch.

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Which foods will feel it most

During the devastating 2015/16 El Niño, which triggered the country's worst drought in 35 years, cereal inflation shot up from 4.7% to 17.5% year-on-year. That alone added 1.1 percentage points to the overall CPI increase of 12.3% recorded between the end of 2014 and 2016. Food and non-alcoholic beverages as a whole contributed 3.4 percentage points to inflation during that period.

Bishop was clear that food was not the primary driver of that inflation spike. By contrast, fish and seafood, which make up just 0.43% of the CPI basket, had a negligible effect even when prices rose sharply. During 2015/16, fish and seafood inflation climbed from 8.0% to 11.3%.

Why the blow may be softer this time

Food's overall influence in the inflation basket has shrunk considerably. It now accounts for roughly 18.23% of the CPI, down from 25.66% in 2006. As household incomes have grown and spending on services has increased, food's share of the basket has declined, meaning broad price surges may not hit the headline inflation figure as hard as they once did.

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3 Other Briefly News stories about the cost of living

• Statistics South Africa released its latest consumer price index inflation figures, which do not paint a good picture.
• South African motorists were heading for a decent fuel price drop in June 2026, with petrol and diesel both showing strong over-recoveries at month-end.
• Brent crude has surged past $100 a barrel as tensions between the U.S, Israel, and Iran disrupt Middle East oil production.

Source: Briefly News