UN Warns El Niño Could Become Strongest in at Least 1,000 Years, SAWS Explains What It Means for SA
- The United Nations has warned that the current El Niño event could be the strongest in at least 1,000 years
- South African Weather Service scientist Cobus Olivier explained why the Pacific Ocean phenomenon triggers below-normal rainfall
- SAWS also forecast drier and hotter conditions across most of South Africa from October 2026 through to January 2027
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Byron Pillay, a Briefly News journalist, has dedicated a decade to reporting on the South African political landscape, crime, and social issues. He worked as a newspaper journalist for 10 years before transitioning to online.
SOUTH AFRICA — The United Nations has warned that a powerful El Niño event is "supersizing before our eyes," with forecasts suggesting it could become the strongest on record in at least 1,000 years.
The UN noted that globally, the consequences are already unfolding. The World Food Programme warned in August that the El Niño was likely to push around 50 million people into acute hunger. Worsening wildfires in Indonesia, weakening monsoon rains in India, elevated fire risk in Australia, and more intense flooding in South America have all been linked to the developing event.
The UN said the combination of El Niño heat and accelerating global warming means 2027 is set to shatter existing temperature records and become the hottest year ever documented.
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What El Niño Means for Southern Africa
Speaking to Newzroom Afrika recently, South African Weather Service (SAWS) scientist Cobus Olivier explained the mechanism behind the phenomenon. During a standard weather cycle, trade winds push warm ocean water westward across the Pacific. During an El Niño, those winds weaken, allowing warm water to pool in equatorial regions instead.
"This produces pretty much a feedback and knock-on effect on other areas of the world," Olivier said.
"For us further south, because of that strengthening of the convection in the East Africa equatorial parts, we actually have below-normal rainfall conditions for us here in further south in the subtropics."
SAWS also noted that the current event is already tracking above the threshold that defines a very strong El Niño, with the latest weekly sea surface temperature anomalies in the east-central tropical Pacific exceeding 3°C above normal. A very strong El Niño is defined as one where those anomalies surpass 2°C.
SA's drought history with El Niño
SAWS pointed to the 1982/83 and 2015/16 El Niño events as among the most damaging for the region, both producing widespread drought conditions.
The weather service cautioned, however, that outcomes are not uniform. The very strong 1997/98 event was associated with slightly above-normal rainfall in parts of South Africa's summer rainfall region.
"Although below-normal rainfall is statistically the most likely outcome in southern Africa this summer, not every El Niño event is associated with drought," SAWS stated.
Other weather-related stories in South Africa
Briefly News reported that South Africa is no stranger to weather warnings, as the country is often affected by different phenomena.
- In March 2025, an Orange Level 5 weather warning was issued for KZN as the province was battered by heavy rainfall.
- In June 2025, the rain was replaced by snow as SAWS warned of severe weather for the Eastern Cape and even KZN.
- Two months later, an increase in temperatures across the country led to several warnings of wildfires.
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Source: Briefly News
