“What’s Wrong With 2026?”: SA Reacts as Expert Gives Super El Niño Outlook for Mzansi

• Agricultural economist Wandile Sihlobo warned that South Africa faces a concerning El Niño season ahead
• Farmers will enter the 2026/27 summer crop season with better soil moisture than in previous drought years
• Questions remain over whether the expected El Niño will last one season or become prolonged

South African farmers are preparing for a potentially difficult 2026/27 summer crop season as forecasts point towards a strong El Niño event. Agricultural economist and Presidential Envoy on Agriculture and Land, Wandile Sihlobo, shared his outlook on 22 June 2026, warning that rainfall patterns could become increasingly unpredictable.

Sihlobo explained that South Africa typically experiences a greater risk of below-normal rainfall during El Niño years. However, he also stressed that current conditions differ significantly from previous severe drought periods because of recent above-average rainfall and healthier grazing conditions.

South Africa’s summer crop season usually begins around October in eastern regions and later in western production areas. Farmers producing maize, sunflower, soybeans, dry beans and groundnuts will closely monitor weather forecasts over the coming months as planting preparations intensify.

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Better conditions offer some hope

Sihlobo pointed to the devastating drought period between 2014 and 2016 as one of South Africa’s most difficult agricultural challenges in recent memory. He also referenced less severe El Niño-related dry periods experienced during 2018/19 and parts of 2024.

Unlike those previous drought periods, much of South Africa received substantial rainfall during the recent La Niña cycle. According to Sihlobo, soil moisture levels, water reserves and grazing conditions currently remain in healthier condition than before past drought events.

He explained that some livestock farmers in the Karoo and Kalahari regions have reported exceptionally favourable grazing conditions following recent rainfall patterns.

Another factor influencing farmers’ decisions will be profitability. Sihlobo noted that commodity prices remain under pressure after South Africa recorded a strong summer grains and oilseeds production season, while global grain supplies also remain elevated.

South Africans reacting online expressed concern about the possibility of another severe drought. Others questioned whether unusual winter rainfall patterns could signal changing climate conditions ahead of the expected El Niño season.

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Watch the TikTok clip below:

More about El Niño

• SA braces for shifting weather patterns as experts flag possible extreme heat linked to a developing El Niño.
• Major international climate agencies have confirmed that El Niño conditions have developed, raising concerns about drought, crop damage and rising food costs.
• A South African TikToker explained a major climate phenomenon in detail and included predictions.

Source: Briefly News