NOAA Warns of Historic El Niño in 2026/27 That Could Be Strongest Since 1950

• NOAA's Climate Prediction Center raised the probability of a very strong El Niño to over 90% for the September–November period
• Pacific Ocean temperatures in the Niño 1+2 region have already reached +3.2°C above average, signalling rapid intensification
• South Africa's 2026/27 summer rainfall patterns could be significantly affected as the event continues to develop

SOUTH AFRICA — The United States' National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has issued a stark update on the developing El Niño, warning that the event could become the most powerful on record since 1950, with direct implications for Southern Africa's summer season.

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) released the update on 24 August 2026, placing the probability of a very strong El Niño at greater than 90% for the September–November through November–January 2026/27 period. The agency also puts the chance of the October–December 2026 window producing a historic event at 69%, potentially surpassing all previously recorded El Niño episodes in the modern climate record.

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Pacific Ocean temperatures surge

Sea surface temperature readings across the equatorial Pacific are already elevated well above normal. The Niño 3.4 region sits at +1.8°C above average, the Niño 3 region at +2.5°C, and the Niño 1+2 region, closest to the South American coastline, at +3.2°C. Subsurface heat content beneath the equatorial Pacific remains above average, with warmth continuing to build across east-central and eastern Pacific zones, supporting further intensification of the event.

NOAA describes El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as a large-scale climate driver rather than a direct weather forecasting tool. However, the agency noted that a strengthening event of this magnitude could significantly influence atmospheric circulation patterns across Southern Africa during the upcoming 2026/27 summer rainfall season.

View the update on Facebook:

What it could mean for South Africa

Weather monitoring page Storm Report SA, which shared the NOAA findings on 27 August 2026, flagged the update as particularly relevant for South Africa. Strong El Niño events have historically been associated with below-normal rainfall and elevated temperatures across parts of Southern Africa, raising concerns about drought conditions, water supply, and agricultural output heading into summer.

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South Africans responding to the post expressed a mix of concern and anxiety about the practical consequences.

Artic Ally wrote:

"Time to stock up on water. I just know there's barely going to be any water to last us until the next rainfall."

Lizette Rossouw Van Dalen added:

"My heart goes out to all the animals 😞 they cannot open a water tap, or ask for water when they are thirsty 😓"

Chris Burger reflected on the broader picture:

"My dad once said to me and my brother while we were fishing: never interfere with nature. If you want to see chaos in the world, go and interfere with Mother Nature."

SA reacts to El Niño update

In a related article, Briefly News reported on the recent TikTok video posted by The Weather Girls, warning that El Niño is rapidly developing and gaining strength with an 81% chance of becoming a very strong event by late 2026. Forecasters indicate that the current winter is already showing early signs of El Niño's impact, with temperatures significantly above normal across various regions.

Source: Briefly News