US Midterm Elections 2026: What the Results Could Mean for South Africa Going Forward
- The United States midterm elections take place on Tuesday, 3 November 2026, with some South Africans keeping a close eye on the result
- Professor Elizabeth Sidiropoulos discussed how the results of the elections could impact South Africa and its relationship with the US
- A Democratic-controlled Congress could push back on Donald Trump's agenda, as South Africa's AGOA exclusion remains a key concern
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Byron Pillay, a Briefly News journalist, has spent a decade reporting on South Africa's political landscape, crime, and social issues. He worked as a newspaper journalist for 10 years before transitioning to online journalism.
WASHINGTON, DC — The outcome of the United States midterm elections could have tangible consequences for South Africa, according to a leading international affairs expert.
Professor Elizabeth Sidiropoulos, Chief Executive of the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA), shared her analysis with 702's Bongani Bingwa, outlining what a shift in congressional power could mean for the bilateral relationship between Pretoria and Washington.
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What are the US midterm elections?
Held every four years at the midpoint of a presidential term, midterm elections do not place the presidency itself on the ballot.
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Instead, they determine which party controls Congress, shaping the legislative agenda, federal spending, judicial appointments, and oversight of the executive branch. Historically, the party in the White House loses congressional seats during these cycles, making midterms a de facto referendum on the sitting president.
What a congressional shift could mean for South Africa
Speaking about the elections, Professor Sidiropoulos said a Democratic-controlled House could offer some resistance to the Trump administration's policy direction, potentially recalibrating the relationship between the legislative and executive branches.
However, she cautioned that foreign policy remains largely driven by the White House, which limits how much Congress can redirect the president's international decisions.
Trade is one of the most immediate pressure points. South Africa is set to be excluded from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) from January 2027, a trade arrangement that has historically provided duty-free access to the US market for South African industries including automotive manufacturing, agriculture, and wine.
Congressional committees also set the political tone for bilateral relations, influencing whether Washington pursues sanctions, formal investigations, or a more cooperative approach on issues such as energy transition and trade policy.
Funding for public health programmes is another area of concern. Congress controls spending on global health initiatives, including PEPFAR, which underpins HIV/AIDS treatment and healthcare infrastructure across South Africa. Leadership changes in key committees can alter the conditions attached to such funding or delay its renewal.
Results could affect Trump's conduct in office
Professor Sidiropoulos also raised a broader caution about how the midterms might affect Trump's conduct in office.
She stated that rather than settling into a traditional lame-duck phase during his final two years, he could become what she described as an "angry duck", redirecting his attention toward foreign policy, where his executive authority is most expansive.
Trump previously pledged to send every American adult a one-off payment of $5,000 if the Republicans secure control of both chambers of Congress in the midterm elections.
For South Africa and the wider continent, the midterms may produce some legislative friction against the current US administration, but Professor Sidiropoulos was clear that a fundamental shift in Washington's foreign policy direction is unlikely.
Trump shows concern over losing midterm elections
Briefly News previously reported that Donald Trump expressed concern that he would be impeached as US President after the midterm elections.
Trump expressed his concern during a retreat for Republican lawmakers in Washington on 6 January 2026.
He urged Republicans to win the 2026 Congressional midterm elections, or else he would be at the mercy of the Democrats.
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Source: Briefly News
