What does WAR mean in baseball and why is it crucial?
Sabermetricians have been developing a system for assessing players' wins-related contributions to their teams for years. WAR is the name given to the statistic that their approach produced. What does WAR mean in baseball, and why does it matter so much?
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The metric is a great aspect of the game because it allows you to compare players who are not easily comparable. Baseball Reference claims that Keith Woolner's VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) theory, which debuted in the 1990s, is the source of WAR.
What does WAR mean in baseball?
Its meaning is "Wins Above Replacement." In baseball, it is a comprehensive statistic meant to gauge a player's total value to their team in relation to a "replacement-level" player.
This fictitious substitute player is said to be easily accessible and usually stands in for one who can be signed for the minimal salary required by the league.
A player with a WAR of six indicates that they have helped their team win six more games than a replacement-level player would have. According to the MLB website, it sums up a player's contributions across multiple dimensions to give an overview of their worth.
Why is it crucial?
Analysts, teams, and the media heavily reference this statistic when evaluating player performance. This statistic largely determines annual baseball awards like the Cy Young and MVP.
For example, according to ESPN, Los Angeles Angels' Shohei Ohtani and Atlanta Braves' Ronald Acuña Jr., who were among the baseball WAR leaders for the 2023 season, were also the MVPs. New York's Gerrit Cole also won the Cy Young Award.
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No one has earned these honours in the last ten years without ranking in the top 10 in either bWAR (Baseball-Reference) or fWAR (Fangraphs), demonstrating the importance of these metrics in identifying performance.
Types of WAR
Despite being the same concept, different organisations calculate WAR slightly differently. The two forms that are most common are:
- fWAR: Calculated by Fangraphs.
- bWAR/rWAR: Calculated by Baseball Reference.
These measures come from baseball-specific sabermetric websites, each of which has extensive databases on every player in Major League Baseball (MLB) history. Although WAR is calculated for pitchers and position players on both websites, there is a little difference in their methods that results in different figures for the same player.
For instance, Baseball Reference assigns 410 WAR to pitchers and 590 WAR to position players, whereas Fangraphs assigns 570 WAR to position players and 430 WAR to pitchers.
Calculating WAR for position players
In the movie Moneyball, assistant general manager of the Oakland Athletics, Peter Brand, highlights a line of thinking that he believes should be considered while trying to find potential. Peter states:
"Your goal should not be to buy players; your goal should be to buy wins. And in order to buy wins, you need to buy runs."
How do you figure out WAR in baseball?
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The calculation in baseball is based on the concept of measuring a player's total contribution to their team's runs, both positive and negative. The following factors are considered when calculating:
- Batting runs
- Base running runs
- Runs added Or lost due to grounding into double plays in double-play situations
- Fielding runs
- Positional adjustment runs
- League adjustment
- Replacement level runs (Based on playing time)
FanGraphs
Dave Cameron said that fWAR does an "impressive job of projecting wins and losses" back in 2009. He discovered that all teams were within two standard deviations (σ=6.4 wins).
There is a good association (correlation coefficient of 0.83) between a team's projected record based on fWAR and its actual record. Both websites begin their computations with remarkably similar bases:
fWAR: (Batting runs + Base running runs + Fielding runs + Positional adjustment + League adjustment + Replacement runs) / (Runs per win)
Baseball Reference
This uses six components to calculate the stat for position players. Here is the formula:
bWAR: (Batting runs + Base running runs +/- Runs from GIDP + Fielding runs + Positional adjustment runs + Replacement level runs) / (Runs per win)
The defensive component is the main reason for the discrepancy between fWAR and bWAR computations. Baseball Reference uses Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), but Fangraphs uses Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR).
These metrics evaluate one's defensive worth, but WAR numbers vary because of their disparate methodologies. While DRS uses more recent data, which can lead to fluctuation, especially for newer players, UZR uses data spanning three years.
Example: Manny Machado's WAR in 2022
Manny Machado was among the best players in Major League Baseball in 2022, although his WAR varied according to the source. He is also among the athletes with the highest sports contracts.
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Baseball Reference rated him with a 6.8 bWAR, but Fangraphs gave him a 7.2 fWAR. This discrepancy is mostly caused by the ways that UZR and DRS evaluate his defensive efforts differently.
Calculating WAR for pitchers
The computation for pitchers shows a greater difference between Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs. Here is the calculation:
- fWAR: Based on Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), which separates a pitcher's performance from the defence behind them. It emphasises things a pitcher can control, like walks, home runs allowed, and strikeouts.
- bWAR: Depends on Runs Allowed per 9 Innings (RA9), which takes into account every run that the pitcher allows, whether earned or unearned.
These various methods might cause pitchers' WAR to vary significantly. For instance, Fangraphs rates Sandy Alcantara's 2022 fWAR at 5.7, but Baseball-Reference values him at 8.0 bWAR.
Alcantara, who depends on forcing ground balls and double plays, performs better in a metric that considers defensive support—such as bWAR—than it does under FIP, which contributes to the gap.
Frequently asked questions
WAR is an important baseball statistic since it can sum up a player's whole team's contributions into a single figure. Knowing its calculation, whether it be fWAR or bWAR, helps provide more insightful player appraisals.
- Which player has the all-time highest WAR in baseball? Babe Ruth, a player with some of the most valuable baseball cards, has the highest WAR in history, with a career of 182.6.
- What is a good WAR in baseball? A good WAR rating for a player in a single season is usually 8+, often enough to put a player in the conversation for the MVP award.
- How does WAR work in baseball? It is an advanced baseball statistic that aims to quantify a player's total win impact on their team.
Although all statistics have shortcomings, WAR in baseball is an essential tool. It allows players from different eras, positions, and even leagues to be compared, and it has great meaning in the history of the game.
READ ALSO: What is MVR in baseball? Understanding its meaning and uses
Briefly published an article about MVR in baseball. It is another term that has drawn attention in the game. What does MVR in baseball stand for? You may have heard it but might not know its definition.
Source: Briefly News
