Eskom Load-Shedding Could Return by 2029, Energy Experts Warn

• South Africa’s relief from load-shedding may be temporary, with experts warning of a possible return by 2029
• The planned decommissioning of three coal-fired power stations could reduce supply just as electricity demand begins to climb
• Analysts say that without faster grid reform and new generation capacity, the country could face another power crunch

South Africans are finally enjoying some relief from rolling blackouts. The lights are staying on, businesses are regaining confidence, and households are breathing a little easier. But energy experts say this calm may not last.

According to MyBroadBand Tech, BizNewsTV Synthesis Power Solutions director Thomas Garner warned that load-shedding could return by 2029.

Why could load-shedding return?

Garner said the core problem is structural: while electricity demand is expected to rise as the economy grows, supply is set to decline.

Three coal-fired power stations, Camden near Ermelo, Grootvlei near Heidelberg, and Hendrina in Mpumalanga, are scheduled for decommissioning within the next two years. These stations still contribute to the grid, even if some operate in cold reserve. After 2029, however, they will no longer be available.

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Garner stated that this planned shutdown will reduce available capacity just as demand could increase, creating a supply-demand imbalance that may trigger renewed load-shedding.

Structural challenges at Eskom

Garner is not alone in raising concerns. Anton Eberhard, emeritus professor at the University of Cape Town’s Power Futures Lab, has also predicted the possible return of blackouts. His concerns focus on the restructuring of Eskom.

Following the release of a revised unbundling plan by Electricity and Energy Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, Eberhard warned that keeping transmission under a single Eskom holding company could limit fair access to the grid for independent power producers.

He cautioned that if competitors struggle to connect new generation projects, South Africa may not bring enough new capacity online, potentially leading to shortages and renewed load-shedding.

Eberhard stressed that separating transmission is a critical reform step taken by more than 100 countries, including fellow BRICS members China, Russia, India and Brazil.

President Cyril Ramaphosa has since attempted to reassure the public about the reform process in his State of the Nation Address, but debate over Eskom’s structure continues.

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What are the possible solutions?

When asked about the fastest way to add new generation capacity, Garner said building more coal-fired power stations is unlikely to be viable.

He explained that skills and investment have shifted away from coal technology, spare parts are becoming harder to source, and South Africa’s recent coal projects, Medupi and Kusile, were significantly delayed and over budget.

Nuclear power, while an option, would take time. South Africa has identified only two potential sites, and even under optimistic timelines, new nuclear plants would take 15 to 20 years to add roughly 3.6GW to the grid.

Gas generation could support the system, particularly in balancing renewable energy, but Garner said there may not be sufficient time to establish major gas projects before 2029.

Instead, he believes wind, solar and battery storage offer the most realistic and immediate solutions. Over the past four years, an estimated 6GW to 8GW of rooftop solar has been installed across the country, significantly more than what new nuclear capacity could deliver over decades.

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South Africans were infuriated at the return of load-shedding

In a related article, South Africans reacted with anger in February 2025 at the mere prospect of load-shedding returning, highlighting just how sensitive the country remains to any signs of renewed power cuts. Multiple unit trips at the Camden Power Station forced the utility to sharply increase load-shedding. Just hours after implementing Stage 3 load-shedding, Eskom announced on 23 February 2025 that the country would move to Stage 6 until further notice, sparking widespread frustration.

Eskom marked 300 days of no load-shedding

Briefly News also reported that the abrupt implementation of stage 6 load-shedding came shortly after Eskom marked 300 days without load-shedding on 21 January 2025, celebrating what it described as improved generation capacity. Eskom also announced that the 300-day period reduced unplanned outages and saved over R16 billion in diesel expenditure.

Source: Briefly News