SA Weather Service Warns SA Could Face Strongest El Niño in Decades, With Heat and Drought Fears

• The South African Weather Service issued a stark warning about an intensifying El Niño event developing in the Pacific Ocean
• SAWS forecast below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures across most of South Africa from October 2026 into early 2027
• The weather service warned that 2027 could become the warmest year ever recorded if current predictions hold

South Africa is bracing for one of its most severe weather seasons in decades. The South African Weather Service (SAWS) issued a warning on Tuesday, 1 September 2026, that a powerful El Niño event is developing and is expected to bring hotter, drier conditions to the country through spring and into the new year.

According to SAWS, sea surface temperature anomalies over the east-central tropical Pacific Ocean have already crossed the threshold that classifies an event as very strong. Forecasters say the current event is very likely to surpass the 3°C mark above normal, which would make it the strongest El Niño in living memory. South African Government News Agency reported on 01 September:

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"SAWS said the latest predictions indicate that El Niño is likely to intensify further and could become the strongest event in living memory."

What South Africans can expect this season

The latest seasonal outlook for October to December 2026 points to below-normal rainfall over most of South Africa, paired with above-normal temperatures. SAWS said those conditions are expected to continue into November 2026 through January 2027, with little relief in sight for much of the country.

SAWS highlighted two of the most damaging El Niño seasons in regional history as a reference point. The events of 1982/83 and 2015/16 both brought widespread drought to southern Africa. The weather service noted that the 2015/16 season, in particular, triggered severe heatwaves across the region, and that the southern African landmass has continued to warm in the 11 years since.

There is one important caveat. The very strong 1997/98 El Niño bucked the regional trend and was actually linked to slightly above-normal rainfall in parts of South Africa's summer rainfall zone. SAWS acknowledged that while drier conditions are statistically the most likely outcome, not every El Niño delivers drought.

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Heatwaves and water scarcity on the radar

What concerns forecasters most this time around is the combination of El Niño and long-term global warming. SAWS warned that 2027 is likely to become the warmest year ever recorded if the event develops as expected. Should rainfall fall below normal, heatwaves are expected to occur more frequently and could be severe.

The weather service said it would closely monitor developments and communicate updates to disaster management structures, weather-sensitive industries and the public. South Africans have been urged to track monthly seasonal forecast updates and daily short-term weather alerts to prepare for high-impact weather events in the months ahead.

Read the full South African Government News Agency article here.

More Briefly News stories on weather

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• Hopes for widespread snow in Gauteng were dashed as an updated forecast shifted the outlook, although a significant cold outbreak was still expected.

Source: Briefly News