South African Diesel Prices Set to Rise by Up to R1.91 in August Amid Middle East Tensions

• TreasuryONE strategist Andre Cilliers warned that the Middle East conflict is pushing global oil prices sharply higher in July
• Central Energy Fund data shows diesel could climb by as much as R1.91 per litre when August adjustments take effect
• The Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources is expected to confirm official fuel price changes early next week

SOUTH AFRICA — South African motorists are bracing for a significant increase in diesel prices in August, driven by escalating instability across the Middle East that has sent global oil markets sharply higher.

TreasuryONE currency strategist Andre Cilliers warned that the conflict is far from resolved, with ongoing strikes between the United States and Iran despite a ceasefire announced in July, continued Houthi attacks, and disruptions to Kazakhstan's Caspian Pipeline Consortium all keeping energy markets under pressure.

Oil markets surge as OPEC+ meeting looms

Although Brent crude pulled back to near $87 a barrel, both Brent and WTI crude benchmarks remain on course for their largest monthly gain since March. Brent has climbed roughly 20% in July alone. Cilliers noted that while shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz is recovering and attention turns to a potential Saudi-led coalition effort in the Red Sea, the core conflict continues to rattle investor confidence ahead of an upcoming OPEC+ meeting.

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Diesel to spike, petrol largely unchanged

The consequences for South African consumers are direct and uneven. Month-end data from the Central Energy Fund points to diesel rising by R1.75 per litre for 50ppm and R1.91 per litre for 500ppm when August prices take effect. Petrol tells a different story. The 95 Unleaded grade is expected to remain unchanged, while 93 Unleaded may see a marginal five-cent reduction.

At current inland rates, 95 Unleaded retails at R26.11 per litre, with 50ppm diesel sitting at R25.16 per litre. One key variable that could influence the outcome is the Slate Levy, presently set at R1.14 per litre, a mechanism used to compensate fuel companies for fluctuations in the international oil price. The Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources is scheduled to announce official August fuel price adjustments early next week.

Parliament proposes bi-weekly fuel price adjustments

In a related article, Briefly News reported on South Africa's proposal to shift from monthly to bi-weekly fuel price adjustments as a means to better manage the impact of rising costs on households and businesses. This change comes in response to significant increases in fuel prices that have burdened the poorest South Africans, intensifying concerns about the rising cost of living.

Source: Briefly News