SA Worried As Climate Warning Projects 1,200 Heat-Related Deaths Due to Upcoming El Niño

• A Climate Impact Lab report projected around 1,200 additional heat-related deaths in South Africa between September 2026 and February 2027
• The current El Niño cycle is forecast to become the strongest on record, with hotter temperatures and below-normal rainfall expected through early 2027
• South Africans pushed back on the warning, with many pointing to the cold weather still gripping parts of the country

A new international climate report has raised serious concern about South Africa's immediate future, warning that a record-breaking El Niño event could cost thousands of lives before summer ends.

The Climate Impact Lab published projections on Monday, 28 September 2026, estimating roughly 1,200 excess heat-related deaths in South Africa during the September 2026 to February 2027 period. The figure is measured against a historical baseline drawn from 1996 to 2025.

Super El Niño threatens SA lives and livelihoods

The current El Niño event is already active and intensifying across the tropical Pacific, with ocean temperatures climbing rapidly. The South African Weather Service forecasts hotter-than-normal conditions and reduced rainfall stretching through February and March 2027.

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Globally, the situation is even more alarming. The report projects over 451,000 additional heat deaths worldwide during the first nine months of the current El Niño phase. Africa's Sahel region faces the heaviest toll, with an estimated 66,800 additional deaths, while Nigeria and Sudan carry the highest country-level estimates at 31,400 and 17,500 respectively.

Researchers noted that temperatures being recorded now mirror what climate models had previously projected as baseline conditions 20 years into the future. The World Health Organisation has warned that extreme heat combined with drought and flash flooding will create ideal breeding conditions for malaria, dengue fever, and cholera.

Who is most at risk

Health experts identified babies, young children, pregnant women, the elderly, outdoor workers, and people living with cardiovascular or respiratory conditions as the groups most vulnerable to heat stress.

Recommended protective measures include municipal cooling centres, expanded early-warning systems, adequate shade and hydration for outdoor workers, and a strict warning against leaving children or pets in parked vehicles.

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The Department of Agriculture has urged farmers to adopt conservation agriculture methods, prioritise heat- and drought-resistant crops, and avoid expanding land under current high-risk conditions. Dam levels remain relatively high, offering some early buffer, but localised water distribution strain during intense heatwaves remains a real concern.

Mzansi reacts to the heat warning

South Africans were not entirely convinced, with many taking to the Facebook post to share their disbelief:

@Regina Regina wrote:

"September? Where? Yoh...we still wearing jackets this side."

@Patson Motuku said:

"How about predicting positive things. Rhaa!"

@Mohammed Khaalid Vally added:

"Meanwhile still a bit of winter chill in the Cape Town air."

@Njabulo Moyo noted:

"But it's 2 days before end of September and it's still cold."

@Brian Mashego commented:

"Fortunately this world isn't ruled by predictions… 😊 Covid predictions proved this."

@Vuyelwa Vee Yeks said:

"This when the meteorologists can hardly predict the weather 👀 ayke you are in for a shock."

@Wade Hendricks asked simply:

"Must we still go to work or?"

More on El Niño in South Africa

• Briefly News recently reported on a NOAA warning that the 2026/27 El Niño could become one of the strongest ever recorded.
• SAWS warned that South Africa could face hotter temperatures and below-normal rainfall as a powerful El Niño develops.
• A UN warning about an exceptionally strong El Niño prompted SAWS to explain how the weather phenomenon could affect South Africa.

Source: Briefly News