Southern Africa Faces Economic Threats Amid US–Iran Conflict, Warns Minister Ronald Lamola

• Minister Ronald Lamola has warned of an oil price spike from the US-Iran conflict affecting Southern Africa's economy
• Rising fertiliser costs could threaten food security across multiple countries in the SADC region
• Lamola emphasised the need for deeper regional cooperation to mitigate external economic shocks for the 380 million citizens
• A chief economist at Stellenbosch University has provided expert analysis to Briefly News on the economic implications of the rising tension

Justin Williams, a journalist at Briefly News since 2024, covers South Africa’s current affairs. Before joining Briefly News, he served as a writer and chief editor at Right for Education Africa’s South African chapter.

South Africa's Minister of International Relations and Co-operation, Ronald Lamola, has warned that the escalating conflict between the United States and Iran could trigger oil price spikes, rising food costs and reduced investment flows across Southern Africa.

War affecting global markets and supply chains

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According to BusinessDay, Lamola raised the concerns on Thursday, 12 March 2026, while addressing foreign ministers at a meeting of the Southern African Development Community council of ministers. He said the conflict, which began on 28 February 2026, was already affecting global markets and supply chains. He said the current geopolitical climate, including the war between the United States and Iran and Tehran's retaliation within Gulf Cooperation Council countries, was sending shock waves through societies and creating risks of supply disruptions and energy shocks.

African governments are increasingly concerned that the widening Middle East conflict could intensify economic pressures in import-dependent economies. Southern African countries are particularly vulnerable to fluctuations in global oil and fertiliser prices, which directly influence transport costs and food prices. Lamola warned that higher crude oil prices could quickly spill over into food markets and place additional pressure on public finances in the region.

Chief economist Lisette IJssel de Schepper told Briefly News that the key factor to watch is the duration of the disruption in global oil supply.

"A short-lived spike in oil prices can usually be absorbed by the economy, but a prolonged period of elevated prices would have a more meaningful impact on inflation and household finances," she said.

380 million people living in the SADC

He said that beyond the immediate impact of rising oil prices, an increase in fertiliser costs could drive up food prices and further threaten food security across many countries in the region. Lamola added that the region was unlikely to avoid the economic impact of the conflict, warning that public finances could come under greater strain and that ordinary citizens would ultimately bear the cost.

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He also cautioned that countries in the Gulf could shift their priorities towards defence and domestic security, potentially reducing overseas investment. Lamola said there was growing concern that Gulf states might reassess investments in infrastructure, critical minerals, energy and technology as resources are redirected toward internal security needs. He added that the situation highlighted the need for deeper regional cooperation to protect the more than 380 million people living in the SADC bloc from external economic shocks.

South Africans stranded in Middle East as US-Iran conflict escalates

Briefly News previously reported that South Africans who are in the Middle East say they are hoping to make it home safely after the United States launched a military operation in Iran over the weekend on 28 February 2026.

The Iranian Community of South Africa weighed in on the operation and praised the United States as President Donald Trump outlined the timeline for how long the operations would last.

Source: Briefly News