El Niño: How the Climate Pattern Could Affect Africa As Floods, Drought and Extreme Heat Loom
- A strong El Niño event is expected to persist until February 2027, bringing extreme and contrasting weather conditions across Africa
- East Africa faces heightened flood risk while Southern Africa braces for worsening drought during the critical October–April rainy season
- Regional climate experts met in Seychelles, where they urged governments to prepare for multiple hazards covering the next two rainy seasons
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Byron Pillay, a Briefly News journalist, has dedicated a decade to reporting on the South African political landscape, crime, and social issues. He worked as a newspaper journalist for 10 years before transitioning to online.
Africa is heading into one of its most weather-volatile periods in recent memory.
A powerful El Niño event, driven by unusually warm waters in the Pacific Ocean, is forecast to persist through to February 2027 and is expected to trigger a range of extreme weather conditions across the continent.
While the pattern has caused panic globally, it will not hit all regions equally.
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How will Africa be affected?
East Africa, including Kenya, Somalia, southern Ethiopia, and Uganda, is expected to receive above-average rainfall between October and December, raising serious flood risks for communities already living in low-lying or infrastructure-poor areas.
Southern Africa faces the opposite problem: below-normal rainfall throughout its October–April rainy season, compounding drought pressures that have been building for years. The strain on the region could mirror conditions that pushed Cape Town to the brink of running out of municipal water.
In West Africa, countries such as Mali, Niger, Nigeria, and Chad should expect unpredictable rainfall timing, with dry spells cutting across farming seasons. Central Africa faces mixed and variable conditions.
Water remains a key pressure point
According to the Institute for Security Studies, water is the first pressure point across the continent.
Whether through infrastructure damage from floods or severe shortages from drought, disruptions to water supply quickly cascade into food insecurity, reduced crop yields, and market instability.
Forum meets to discuss potential impact
The South-West Indian Ocean Climate Outlook Forum also recently met to discuss the impact El Niño could have. Hosted by the Seychelles Meteorological Agency from 15 to 17 September 2026, it brought together representatives from Comoros, La Réunion, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Seychelles, South Africa, and Tanzania to assess risks for October 2026 through March 2027.
The forum's findings pointed to drier conditions and greater drought risk across South Africa, southern and central Mozambique, Malawi, and south-western Madagascar.
Wetter conditions and flood risks are expected across Tanzania, northern Malawi, Seychelles, and parts of the Mascarene Islands. Above-normal temperatures are forecast across the entire region, with a substantially increased chance of exceptionally high heat. Tropical cyclone activity across the South-West Indian Ocean basin is expected to be below normal, though experts stressed this does not mean individual cyclone threats disappear entirely.
More on El Niño in South Africa
- Briefly News recently reported on a NOAA warning that the 2026/27 El Niño could become one of the strongest ever recorded.
- SAWS warned that South Africa could face hotter temperatures and below-normal rainfall as a powerful El Niño develops.
- A UN warning about an exceptionally strong El Niño prompted SAWS to explain how the weather phenomenon could affect South Africa.
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Source: Briefly News
