SA Braces for Record Fuel Prices as Middle East Crisis Rocks Global Oil Supply

• Brent crude has surged past $100 a barrel as tensions between the U.S, Israel, and Iran disrupt Middle East oil production
• Kuwait, the UAE, and Iraq have cut output, while Qatar reduced LNG production, tightening global energy supply
• South Africa faces the prospect of record fuel prices as global markets react to the escalating crisis
• Chief economist Lisette IJssel de Schepper from Stellenbosch University has weighed in on the expected fuel price increases in comments to Briefly News.

As Brent crude has shot up above $100 a barrel, reaching its highest level in years due to the intensifying conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran, confidence in global energy markets has taken a hit.

According to eNCA, traders have driven prices sharply higher amid fears of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global oil artery, and production cuts from several Middle Eastern producers, with Brent briefly exceeding $114 before settling above $100.

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For South Africa, which imports most of its crude and refined fuel, this spike threatens to push petrol and diesel prices significantly higher, add to inflationary pressures and weigh on household budgets already stretched by the weaker rand and rising living costs.

Chief economist Lisette IJssel de Schepper from Stellenbosch University told Briefly News journalist Justin Williams that it is important to note that the official fuel price adjustment in early April will be based on the average of international fuel prices and the rand exchange rate over the full month.

"If tensions escalate further and oil prices rise again, the increase could be larger than currently expected," she added.

Conflict rocks fuel supply

Global energy markets recorded their largest one-day gain since April 2020, reaching levels not seen since June 2022. In Kuwait, authorities have begun reducing output at key oil fields and refineries to manage supply. The United Arab Emirates is adjusting offshore production to optimise storage while keeping onshore operations stable.

Iraq has experienced a dramatic decline in output from its three main southern oilfields, dropping 70% from 4.3 million barrels per day to just 1.3 million. Adding further strain, Qatar reduced LNG production last week, tightening global supply even more.

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Experts warn: April fuel price increases may hit South African households hard

The combined disruptions across the region have sent ripples through energy markets worldwide, raising concerns about further price volatility in the coming weeks.

RFA warned of inrease in fuel price

In a related article, the Road Freight Association warned that from 4 March 2026, South Africans can expect higher petrol and diesel prices, with diesel set to rise by as much as 65 cents per litre due to global oil price pressures. South African households are cautioned that these increases will push up transport and grocery costs, placing additional strain on their budgets. Experts say that ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, combined with recent fuel levies, could drive prices even higher if the situation persists.

The Department of Mineral Resources and Energy confirmed that petrol will increase by 20 cents per litre, diesel by 60 to 65 cents per litre depending on the grade, illuminating paraffin (wholesale) by 44 cents per litre, and LPGAS by 23 cents per kilogram. These hikes come amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, following recent hostilities involving Iran, the US, and Israel, which have driven international oil prices higher.

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Ramaphosa warns of instability in the global markets

Previously, Briefly News reported that President Cyril Ramaphosa has warned that instability in global energy markets, driven by the escalating conflict in the Middle East, is exposing Africa’s economic vulnerabilities. He made the remarks on Wednesday, 4 March 2026, at the 18th Annual Africa Energy Indaba in Cape Town.

Addressing attendees at the Cape Town International Convention Centre (CTICC), Ramaphosa highlighted that supply chain disruptions and rising energy costs are straining African economies. He said we are becoming victims of conflicts happening far from our shores. He further said that, as seen during the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the COVID-19 pandemic, shifting geopolitical landscapes reveal the vulnerabilities of import-dependent economies across our continent.

Source: Briefly News