SANDF's Weakness Could Leave South Africa Vulnerable to Foreign Military Threats, Analysts Warn

• Analysts stated that South Africa's SANDF faces significant limitations, risking national defence capabilities against foreign military threats
• The defence analysts warned that the US could easily engage militarily with little resistance from South Africa's weakened forces
• Geopolitical tensions could elevate South Africa's strategic relevance amid potential conflicts between China and Western powers

Justin Williams, a journalist at Briefly News since 2024, covers South Africa’s current affairs. Before joining Briefly News, he served as a writer and chief editor at Right for Education Africa’s South African chapter.

South Africa is not facing an immediate risk of a foreign military attack, but defence analysts warn that the weakened state of the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) means the country would be unable to defend itself should such a threat materialise.

SANDF severely compromised

According to The Citizen, defence analyst Dean Wingrin said years of declining budgets, loss of critical capabilities and erosion of operational skills had left the SANDF severely compromised. He said that even if those declines had not occurred, the United States military operated on a scale far beyond South Africa’s capacity and would encounter little resistance if it chose to engage militarily.

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Wingrin said the US would likely face fewer challenges dealing with South Africa’s armed forces than it did during its recent operation against Venezuela. While South Africa’s geographic position at the southern tip of Africa could pose logistical hurdles, he said the US military possessed the ability to overcome them through aircraft carrier groups, long-range missiles and strategic bombers capable of operating from the continental United States and bases such as Ascension Island in the mid-Atlantic.

He cited Iran as an example, noting that despite having modern air defence systems and advanced warning of attacks, Iran’s military still suffered heavy damage during a limited confrontation. Wingrin said it was unrealistic to expect South Africa to resist a military engagement if the US pursued regime change beyond its stated focus on dominance within the Western Hemisphere.

Wingrin said South Africa should instead concentrate on restoring and maintaining defence capabilities comparable to those of its African peers. He warned that the country could not afford further erosion of military capacity and said its best defence lay in reassessing past decisions, exercising caution in political and economic positioning, and giving practical meaning to a policy of non-alignment.

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Submarines would not prevent major power

Defence expert Helmoed-Römer Heitman said South Africa’s small submarine fleet offered little deterrence against global military powers but could still serve a limited strategic purpose. He said a modest fleet of submarines would not prevent a major power from acting on a matter of vital interest, but it could force a more careful assessment of risk and reward.

Heitman said for submarines to play such a role, the South African Navy would need to restore functionality across its fleet, implement upgrades and acquire new torpedoes, mines and preferably missile capability. He added that major powers such as the US, China and India were unlikely to view South Africa as strategically significant, while Russia’s global influence was declining due to economic strain and demographic pressures.

Conflict between China and Western powers

Heitman identified two scenarios that could change South Africa’s strategic relevance. One would be a conflict between China and Western powers, which he said was unlikely but would elevate the importance of the sea route around the Cape. In such a scenario, he said Western nations would rely on that route, while China would attempt to restrict it.

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He said such a conflict would directly affect South Africa’s economy, potentially forcing the country to either protect its waters as a neutral zone or align with Western powers. In that case, he said, an expanded submarine fleet and long-range maritime patrol aircraft would be essential, unless India intervened, given its rivalry with China.

A second scenario, he said, could involve a prolonged “cold war” between China and the US and its allies, potentially leading to proxy forces being deployed elsewhere in Africa. He said South Africa would need the capability either to counter such forces or to make their deployment too risky to sustain, with submarines again forming a key part of that deterrent.

Heitman said former defence minister Joe Modise had previously described the Navy’s three Daphné-class submarines as a major limiting factor on Soviet involvement in the region, which he said explained why the Cabinet at the time supported the acquisition of new submarines.

SANDF detains 1,174 undocumented migrants

Briefly News also reported that SANDF members intercepted and detained 1,174 undocumented Zimbabweans attempting to enter South Africa.

The surge has previously sparked criticism, with SANDF Lieutenant General Ntshavheni Maphaha blaming politicians for weak border management.

Proofreading by Kelly Lippke, copy editor at Briefly.co.za.

Source: Briefly News