US Airstrikes on Venezuela: Implications for South Africa's Economic and Political Landscape
- U.S. airstrikes in Venezuela have sparked global concerns about sovereignty and geopolitical tensions
- South Africa has strongly condemned U.S. actions and called for an urgent UN Security Council meeting
- Venezuela's oil control raises implications for South Africa's economy and BRICS relations and Briefly News analyses possible scenarios and solutions
- Briefly News spoke to currency strategist Andre Cilliers for an in depth analysis of the upcoming trends
The dramatic U.S. military operation on 2 January 2026, codenamed Absolute Resolve, saw airstrikes across northern Venezuela, including Caracas, followed by the capture of President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores. They were flown to New York to face narco-terrorism and drug trafficking charges. President Trump announced the U.S. would temporarily oversee Venezuela's government during a transition and pledged investments to revive its vast oil sector, according to the New York Times.
Source: Getty Images
While the strikes targeted military sites and avoided oil infrastructure, the move has raised alarms worldwide about sovereignty and unilateral power. For South Africa, a BRICS member advocating multipolarity, the implications involve energy security, economic stability, regional alliances, and principles of international law.
South Africa's firm stance: A violation of sovereignty
South Africa's Department of International Relations and Cooperation (DIRCO) swiftly condemned the action as a "manifest violation of the Charter of the United Nations," which prohibits force against a state's territorial integrity or political independence. The country called for an urgent UN Security Council meeting to address the crisis, emphasising that unilateral military interventions breed instability.
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The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) echoed this, declaring the operation "unlawful" and a breach of international law, while insisting on respect for Venezuela's sovereignty.
South African analyst Dr Chad Marthinussen points out in his commentary 'Oil, Currency, and Control,' sent to Briefly News, that this invasion goes beyond one leader. It involves dominating global systems like shipping, insurance, finance, and currencies that make resources valuable.
With Maduro removed, the United States is poised to take control of Venezuelan oil reserves valued at approximately $17.3 trillion, according to AF Post.
So how could this affect us?
Economic implications: A shift in fuel prices
Venezuela boasts the world's largest proven oil reserves, around 303 billion barrels, far exceeding Saudi Arabia. However, South Africa imports almost all its crude oil, mainly from Nigeria (40-50%), Saudi Arabia, Angola and Ghana. We get no significant amounts from Venezuela. Short-term disruptions there won’t directly affect our supplies.
However, global oil markets are connected. Any supply fears could push prices up slightly, leading to higher petrol costs that hit transport, food and household budgets hard.
In the longer term, if U.S. investment boosts Venezuelan output to pre-crisis levels, extra supply could lower prices. That would be good for importers like us, though tougher for African exporters like Nigeria and Angola.
ETM Analytics said:
"The oil price has not moved significantly, given Venezuela's substantial reduction in oil exports and production. If anything, it might slide further if investors believe that the U.S. might oversee a revitalisation of Venezuela's oil industry."
As a BRICS member pushing away from dollar dominance, stronger U.S. control could complicate yuan-based deals or lead to pressure on our exports like cars and metals.
Impact on the rand: An expert's view
Reuters reported that the South African rand was steady in early trade on Monday, as investors considered the implications of U.S. military action in Venezuela. This comes amid escalating geopolitical tensions.
According to Wichard Cilliers, Head of Market Risk at TreasuryOne, the rand is currently holding firmly at R16.54.
"The R16.50 level could provide some resistance to the rand, but we continue to see good exporter-driven inflows into the market."
Andre Cilliers, a Currency Strategist at TreasuryOne added that higher prices suported the local currency, as investors are seeking safety amid rising global tensions.
"Global markets remained upbeay despite heightened geopolitical risk. Oil prices were volatile, with expectations that U.S. involvement in Venezuela could eventually increase glocal supply."
Cilliers concludd that overall markets showed confidence that growth themes will outweight poitical uncertainty "for now".
Our sovereignty and the BRICS factor
If “narco-terrorism” justifies action in Venezuela, what’s to stop it from being used against African nations that challenge U.S. interests? South Africa’s positions on Gaza at the ICJ or on African debt relief already draw criticism from Washington.
Source: UGC
BRICS relations could also face strain. China, a major creditor to Venezuela, stands to lose billions and might respond in other regions.
Trump’s Venezuelan gambit serves as a harsh reminder that sovereignty is not given. It must be defended every day through economic strength, smart alliances and firm principles.
South Africa needs to build greater economic independence by fast-tracking renewables, diversifying trade beyond big powers and protecting key sectors from outside shocks. We must deepen regional ties via SADC and the African Union, making collective defence and diplomacy our frontlines against any overreach.
Within BRICS, we should push boldly for true multipolarity. This includes reformed global rules, alternative financial systems, and security pacts that limit any one nation’s dominance.
History shows us that powerful countries test boundaries in distant places before eyeing closer ones. Venezuela today could be any nation tomorrow that dares to chart its own course.
South African nationals in Venezuela confirmed safe
Meanwhile, Briefly News reported that South Africa has confirmed the safety of its nationals in Venezuela amid rising U.S. military tensions. Officials stated that the South African Embassy in Caracas has maintained regular contact with the nationals. Authorities said that all individuals have been located and remain safe.
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Proofreading by Kelly Lippke, copy editor at Briefly.co.za.
Source: Briefly News
